Around the Web – Trade and Free Agent Rumors
November 24th, 2009 | by Craig Williams |
We can expect to make several more trips to the Roy Halladay rumor mill until something happens with him. Over at River Ave. Blues, Benjamin mentions that the Blue Jays would want Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain as one of the pillars of a trade package. No surprise there. In July, some of the rumors had the Jays requiring both youngsters. I was against trading for Halladay in July and am probably even more against it today. First of all, acquiring Halladay at the deadline was going to make us the unquestioned World Series favorites while still giving us control of his services for 2010. With a new G.M. running the show, the Blue Jays may be willing to accept a smaller package than what was rumored in July. Still, Halladay is only under control for one more year (more on this in a minute) and we have already won a World Series without him. Not to say he wouldn’t help our chances in 2010 because, undoubtedly, he would, but would the price be worth it for someone who we already experienced success without? Speaking of price, not only would we be sending a substantial package of young, cost controlled players for the 33 year old but, we would have to sign him to an extension as well – Johan Santana/New York Mets style. As tantalizing as the idea of Johan Santana heading our rotation was, we made the right decision to pass on him and I think we should do the same here. Besides, if we use up our best prospects on Halladay we won’t have any ammo for…
“Thank God for the Marlins” can be your thinking depending on what team you root for. The way the Marlins operate – trading off young studs before they have to commit significant money to them – lends them to being looked at as a farm team for the Red Sox, Mets and Tigers of the world. Even though the Marlins showed signs of cracking open the wallet a bit when they inked Hanley Ramirez to a deal, it is looking like Josh Johnson could be the latest casualty a.k.a. the next one to earn his ticket out of Baseball Hell (I don’t know for a fact that guys don’t like playing for the Marlins but the stadium is one of the worst in sports, average game day temperature is 135 degrees, it always rains and average attendance is about 27 – one of them being Chewbacca).
Enough with the hyperbole, let’s discuss Josh Johnson. Johnson is one of the leagues best pitchers from both a scouting/stuff and sabermetric standpoint. As Mike points out in his post at RAB, Johnson has a great build (6′7″ 250) while throwing in the mid-90’s with a good slider and change. In addition, he strikes out hitters while limiting walks and inducing lots of ground balls. Basically, everything about him screams Ace. The one knock on him is that he underwent Tommy John Surgery in 2007 – but who doesn’t undergo TJS these days? Now the question is, if/when the Marlins make Johnson available, do we go after him and, if so, how aggressively? Looking at previous deals involving young top notch pitchers, Mike speculates that we would need to offer a package centered around Hughes OR Joba, Jesus Montero and a couple of 2nd or 3rd tier prospects. I tend to become attached and overprotective of our prospects and home grown guys, with my latest obsession (as well as many other Yankees fans’ obsession) being Jesus Montero. Seeing Montero’s name in rumors and speculation gives me feelings that range from queasy to angry and pairing Joba or Hughes only exacerbates those feelings. However, is Johnson – 26 on opening day – worth the price? If I can allow myself to loosen my choke hold on our prospects then I could maybe be swayed to ‘yes’. Johnson is a bonafide stud and someone who we could lock up for his prime years at a decent price. Mike says it perfectly in his piece but IF Joba or Hughes reaches his ceiling, will he be better than Johnson already is? The answer is probably ‘no’. It would hurt to see one of them go but from a baseball business perspective its an upgrade at the starting pitching position. I might shed a tear or two if we had to send Montero away but we are stocked with catcher prospects and we will always have the monetary assets to bring in a big bat if/when we need one. Again, a painful loss as he has developed into a fan favorite among prospects but something that can be overcome.
When a team operates well enough to fill their MLB roster with quality players while developing enough organizational depth they can make trades from desire instead of necessity. When a team is in this enviable position they have the luxury of waiting for the cream of the crop players to hit the trade market. Johnson is cream of the crop but I, personally, still don’t know if I would be excited to see this deal go down. I would certainly feel better about it than if we traded for Roy Halladay but it would take me a while before I stopped second guessing.
Low-Risk, High-Reward FA Pitchers
I love the idea of picking up these types of players – especially pitchers. You can never have too much pitching. Even when you do, you are only an injury or two away from needing some reinforcements. Guys like Ben Sheets, Rich Harden and Erik Bedard are the epitome of low-risk/ high-reward (in a money sense, assuming they each get one-year, incentive laden deals). I would definitely like to see us make a strong play for Sheets and Harden. From what I read and hear from people who closely follow the Orioles, Bedard is a prima donna and soft and I do not want to see him imploding in Yankee pinstripes. Steve at The Yankee Universe suggests picking up Harden to be our set-up man. I absolutely love that idea but unfortunately, we would have to convince Harden to love it too – something that is unlikely to happen. Who knows though? The Red Sox did the same low-risk/high-reward thing last year with John Smoltz and Brad Penny. The difference would be that – unlike Smoltz – neither will be 42 trying to recover from an injury and – unlike Penny – Harden and Sheets are good when healthy.
I am still very interested in signing this kid. I know he is unproven and I know he is raw bu the talent is there and he’s really young. Chances to obtain players at Chapman’s age with his upset on the free agent market don’t come around often – if ever. The money speculation – $15-50 million – is still too wide to make a legitimate guess at what he’ll end up getting but this is one of those times where the Yankees will want to open up the check book – despite the noise that they’re going to be lowering payroll over the next few seasons. The fact that the Yankees and Red Sox are the leading candidates for his services, does not make it sound like the price will be on the low end of that spectrum. I don’t like the fact that we’d be engaging in a bidding war with the Red Sox over this guy because the chance is still significant that he could be a bust. Even if he doesn’t completely reach his ceiling, you are looking at a lefty with electric stuff. You can find a use for guys like that. Worst case scenario is he’s the second coming of Oliver Perez and we only lose money.
We are still waiting on the first big deal to go down, whether it be a trade or a free agent signing. Despite the lack of action, though, the rumors – especially those involving the Yankees – are enough to keep us engaged for a while.
Tags: Aroldis Chapman, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, Jesus Montero, Joba Chamberlain, Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes, Rich Harden, Roy Halladay
