9 Innings: Final Frame

I spent the past week giving my input and opinion on some of the issues that the other teams in the division are facing.  Now it is time to check out what they have to say about some of the questions that the Yanks are facing.  I encourage you to take a look at the sites of the AL East bloggers.  Not only do they produce quality work but, it is always a nice idea to know what our rivals are up to.  Let’s get to it:

1.  What scares you the most about the 2010 Yankees compared to the 2009 version?

Camden Crazies (Dan Moroz) – Compared to the ‘09 version? Nothing, really. A-Rod will probably play more, but that’s about it. Both teams are pretty scary good though.

Jays Fan (Paul Bruno) – The fact that the Bronx Bombers’ management hasn’t spent like drunken sailors as they did a year ago.  I kind of like viewing the Yankees as the big bully. It’s always fun watching when the Jays beat them.  Is it possible that they have seen the light and realize what their ridiculous spending has done to the general public’s perception of the game of baseball?  I’ve got two words for you —Salary Cap. That’s what Yankee fans should fear.

Sox Tea Party (Darryl Johnston) - What used to scare me about the Yankees, I have gotten used to.  Sometimes you forget that New York can force its will on the rest of league when they want to.  Most seasons, they want to.  Even with stretches of consecutive years without success, they will always be a high-end competitor in the league.  Will to win and resources go a long way. 2010 is not more of the same.  It’s more of the more.  100+ wins if it all stays the course.  Anything can happen in the postseason, but the Yankees are the proverbial leaders right now.

Dock Of The Rays (Jason Collette) – The addition of Javy Vazquez. He is not the same enigma that he was in 2004 and is a much more refined pitcher; he would be a staff ace on most any other team. He commands the zone better than most of the pitchers in this league which mitigates the risk of his home run tendencies. I also like Gardner as a SB threat with more playing time as he has disruptive speed.

I have mentioned a number of times on this site that the Yankees are, in fact, placing a much larger emphasis on developing home-grown talent.  I do not anticipate that they will shy away from opening the check book in the future if/when they need/want to. However, the idea of the Yankees being able to operate with the largest payroll and a deep farm system is a very exciting one if you are a Yanks fan – and very scary if you’re not.

2.  In what area(s), if anywhere, do you think the Yankees downgraded, compared to the 2009 team?

CC – Pretty much everyone got a year older. And I don’t expect Jeter to put up another season quite like that one. One can say they downgraded in LF, but that was basically a shift from CF – and if they play Grandy in left then it’s largely a wash.

JF - They lose some power at the DH spot, letting Matsui go. Johnson should hit for a higher average. No big deal as the offense is still loaded. It may be time to transition from veteran catcher Jorge Posada and the replacement isn’t likely to achieve his high standard, even if prized prospect Jesus Montero steps in. There are bound to be growing pains.

STP - I guess maybe a little edge might be off. They had a lot of reason to re-establish themselves as the best and quiet down the city of Boston. There might be a percentage of drive missing from the 2010 squad. A-Rod finally got the ring and the monkey off his back. It won’t make them any less dominant, but it might be a downgrade in burning desire.  That’s hard to measure, but it’s the only thing I can see.

DOTR - Left field contains a nice sum of parts with Gardner and Winn but those two cannot be on the field at the same time.  The club goes from Matsui’s bat to Gardner/Winn in 2 years and that is going to be a bit tough with run production. The Yanks had double digit homers from each lineup spot last year but I do not see that repeating in 2010.

It has to be difficult to really get after it as hard the season after winning it all.  Athletes will always tell you otherwise, but there is no way that the hunger can be QUITE as high in a season following a ring.  I think Darryl brings up a really good point with his answer, I just hope that I’m wrong and the Yankees can attack 2010 as if they are not defending champs.

3.  Curtis Granderson’s average season: .272/.344/.484/.828 163-104-24-70-17.  Does he surpass that line during his first year in pinstripes?

CC - I think that .272/.344/.484 line looks pretty accurate, though maybe with a couple of extra HR in there. His new home park is pretty friendly to left-handed batters, but he’s also probably heading away from his peak years.

JF - Granderson reached a career high in homers with 30. Yankee stadium’s inviting short porch in right should help him approach that number again. On the other hand, his base stealing success rate has been in decline for the last three years. He needs to stop that trend. I see him hitting for a better average as he benefits from being atop the best offensive lineup in baseball.

STP - I’m not sure I even know what each of those stats are, but Granderson’s value will be determined by where he hits in the order.  Is he leading off?  Hitting ninth?  Are they going to drop him in the 5-hole for the power?  I’m sure he will push 30-100-100, but his inability to solve lefties will keep him back as a .270 hitter.  In terms of steals, I’m not sure what his role will be, but I would venture to guess he has a floor of at least 15 SBs and an upside of 40 SBs.  If he is at the top of the order and Giradi lets him go, then he will go nuts. Hitting 5^th in that lineup will have him on base with runners already on.

DOTR - Yes, except for the steals. The park will suit his swing well but I don’t see him leading off as much as a Yankee and the bases will be a bit more clogged than what is he is use to.

My guess is that he will hit lower in the lineup which will limit his SB opportunities but should improve his RBI chances.

4.  Which returning Yankee will have the most success back in the Bronx, Javier Vazquez or Nick Johnson?

CC - Just comparing the two, it’s no question that I expect Javy to be the more valuable player. Compared to general expectations, it’s hard to say. Vazquez was amazing last year, and he’s not likely to repeat that. Should still be very good though.

JF – I think Johnson has a similar upside to Granderson because of the support from this lineup. He is another left-handed bat who will hit for average and may possibly also benefit from the jet stream toward the fences in this hitters’ haven.

STP - I don’t like Vazquez in the AL, so I will say Nick Johnson. He is a stud OBP-guy and with 450 ABs, could easily have a career year.

DOTR - Vazquez will have more strikeouts minus walks than Nick Johnson will have games played. Not to mention, Johnson’s swing is best when he is hitting to left center field rather than trying to pull the ball the entire time. He will also be DHing nearly full time for the first time which will take some getting use to. Vazquez will have a better bullpen and run support than he did last year which cost him the Cy Young.

5.  There is a lot of good pitching in the AL (b)East.  Where does the Yankees staff rank in the division?  How about in 2-3 years?

CC - CC-Javy-AJ-Pettitte-Hughes is probably a touch ahead of Beckett-Lackey-Lester-DiceK-Buchholz. Hard to say in 2-3 years, since it can be assumed that each of those teams can sign whoever the best arms on the market will be. If you take only pitchers currently in the organizations, then I think the Rays at #1 and the Orioles at #2 would make some sense.

JF – I think the Yankees have the best starting rotation in the division and that is not likely to change (see point number 1).

STP - 1a would be my slotting for the Yankees. I think Boston has the best starting rotation and the most skill right through the bullpen. It’s by a slim margin though. Phil Hughes is going to be a real good in the New York bullpen, Mo Rivera is still there, Joba Chamberlain is a force who is already a proven reliever and is an adjustment away from being an ace starter.  Nothing needs to be said about how tough CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett are.  This pitching staff is arguably the best in baseball.

DOTR - I think 2nd behind the Rays. Even if the Rays lose Shields or Garza, types like Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Nick Barnese, and Kyle Lobstein are waiting in the wings. The Yanks have the talent but I do not like how they have handled Joba and Hughes. Yo-yoing them between relief and the rotation does not help and I think both are too talented to be wasted in the pen.

The talent and resources in the AL East is just incredible.

6.  Who wins the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes or someone else?

CC - The news reports seem to be that Hughes has the inside track on the fifth spot. I think that’s OK, and would use Joba as a 130 IP arm out of the pen (going 2-3 innings at a time) until a spot opens up due to injury.

JF – Joba Chamberlain seems like he should have the edge, if for no other reason than the success that Hughes’s enjoyed as the set-up guy out of the pen. His presence ahead of the Sandman, reminds me of the Jays’ dynamic duo of Duane Ward and Tom Hentgen. With these two on the late-inning beat, if the Yanks were ahead through seven frames, it was game over. Why upset that advantage, when Chamberlain is available to hold down the fifth starter role?

STP - Chamberlain. See above.

DOTR - I honestly can’t figure it out. Joba has durability issues, Hughes was more effective out of the pen, and Aceves has earned the right to compete for the spot. Today, I say Hughes but ask me again next month.

This is really going to be a hot topic during Spring Training in Yankeeland.  I personally expect Chamberlain to win the role but I have spoken to people who feel as strongly about Hughes winning the fifth spot.  The more interesting issue may not be who wins but, what do the Yankees do with the guy who “loses”?

7.  What scares you the most: “Joba Chamberlain the future ace” or “Joba Chamberlain the heir to the 9th inning throne”?

CC - Ace starter >>> Closer. There really is only one Mo Rivera, and even Joba couldn’t be expected to dominate in the fashion for that length of team. I’d much rather the Yankees put Joba in the 9th and Hughes in the 8th, and just try to beat them for the first 7 innings instead of hoping for a comeback against a lesser relief corps after Joba/Hughes shuts my team down to start the game.

JF -I think when it’s all said and done, that Joba will be known for hype more than actual productivity. Sure he can strike out a ton of batters but his career WHIP of 1.377 is just this side of ordinary. Don’t forget I’ve covered a guy (Gustavo Chacin) who made enough of a splash that (albeit somewhat tongue in cheek) a cologne was named after him.

STP - Well, if he is indeed a future ace, then that poses problems for the entire AL East.

DOTR - Joba the ace. Once he can control his emotions, improves his conditioning,  and refines an off-speed pitch the sky is the limit. I think closing should be a fall back option for him  rather than a goal.

Everyone else in the division understands that a good starting pitcher is more valuable than a good reliever.  Why can’t Yankees fans get that through their heads?

8.  How big of an impact will our No. 1 prospect, Jesus Montero have in 2010?  More importantly, will he still be a Yankee come 2011?

CC - I think he will still be a Yankee in 2011, but I don’t know how big of an impact he’ll have in 2010. I think the kid will mash, but he’s waiting for the injury to Nick Johnson to open a spot up in the majors since the Yankees seem to have decided catching is out. I might have been inclined to live with his defense behind the plate and hope for Mike Piazza lite, but I’m probably not as smart as Cashman.

JF – Montero’s name has been linked to a number of trade rumors for several months, despite the fact that he is the Yanks’ heir apparent at catcher. I am sure that he will still be dangled if the Bombers run into key injuries that threaten another run a championship.

STP - New York Yankees prospects come through the ultimate media machine so it’s hard to really gauge.  I doubt he sees more than 150 ABs this season.  If Posada goes down with an injury then maybe he sees extended action, but he belongs in AA-Trenton continuing to develop as a catcher.  I think if he is a legit prospect then New York will keep him, but if he gets dealt then I will immediately doubt he was worth the hype.  We’ll see in the next 24 months.

DOTR - There is no room for him in 2010 unless Posada gets hurt. Montero is not at the stage of his career where he should be on the short half of a platoon at catcher. He obviously has room to improve behind the plate but if the Yanks can hang onto Hughes as long as they have, I feel that Montero should still be around unless Hank forces Cashman’s hand in a July panic move.

The future of Jesus Montero – in terms of his position and team – will be another red hot topic with the Yankees.  My love of him is well-documented and I would hate to see him traded unless we are bringing in a Hanley Ramirez or Grady Sizemore type of talent.  I realize that scenario is a bit far-fetched but, it is just my way of expressing how unwilling I am, as a fan, to see him moved in a trade.

9.  Game is tied, bottom of the ninth, two outs, bases loaded.  Who in our lineup do you fear the most?

CC - Whoever on the team has the highest expected OBP in that situation. That might be Tex, just because I couldn’t bring in a reliever to get a platoon advantage. Given that the O’s closer is left-handed, maybe A-Rod then. If I had a righty on the mound, it could be Nick Johnson. Really, I’m not that susceptible to THE FEAR.

JF – Derek Jeter is one of the ultimate clutch players in the game today. The Captain outpaced his career batting average, hitting a robust .344 along with an impressive .406 OBP (vs career .388obp) as a 35 year old. You know what they say about a fine wine. Jeter’s picture should appear next to that quote.

STP - The most? I have no idea. They are all problems. The least scary would be Nick Swisher or Brett Gardner. Melky Cabrera used to be a relieving sight during NYY/BOS games. Too bad he is gone to Atlanta. ARod, Texieira, Cano, Jeter, Posada and Granderson all cause major problems offensively.  Pick your poison.

DOTR - Jeter. He is not called Captain Clutch for nothing. He is so tough to strike out and he inside-outs a good inside fastball better than anyone. He can continually foul off pitchers’ pitches until they make the mistake he is looking for.

10. Extra Inning Walk-Off – Are the defending World Series Champion New York Yankees primed for a repeat?  If not, who is going to stop them (inside or outside of the division) and how?

CC - No. They are quite likely to make the playoffs, but perhaps less so than some teams that are worse than them just because the division is so tough. Then, the playoffs are largely a crap-shoot. I might be inclined to go with the Phillies as the favorites, just because their path to the WS seems a touch easier to me.

JF – The Yankees will face the Phillies in a series repeat. Former Jay Roy Halladay, that noted Yankee killer, will be the MVP in a Phillies’ win this time around…Fast fact for you: Only Babe Ruth has a better winning record against the Yankees among all-time record of all pitchers with 20 or more decisions against New York. This is even more remarkable when you realize that Toronto has never been a playoff contender during Roy’s time here.

STP - I don’t know who would stop them. It’s too hard to guess that stuff because the season is long and there are external factors that will affect outcomes. Right now, everything is a snapshot in time. But today’s snapshot puts New York as the favorites. Anything can happen in the postseason.  We’ll have to see who gets there in October.

DOTR - I picked Boston for the Fanball magazine because I think their pitching and defense combination is just incredible for 2010. They had a lot of things go wrong last year and still finished within shooting range of the Yankees. I think Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay will all finish within 4 games of each other – should be a fun year!

The Phillies added Halladay, obviously, and I don’t know who can stop them in the NL so I like their chances to return for a 3rd straight season.  However, I can’t say that they scare me any more than they did last year.  Cliff Lee won two games against the Yankees – one of them an absolute gem – and dominated throughout the rest of the postseason.  What can Halladay possibly do to top that?  It really is tough to make calls in February though.  Countless things can happen that will impact playoff chases but, the AL (b)East race figures to be one of the best in the game.

I would like to thank Darryl, Paul, Dan and Jason for their input during this series.  I really enjoyed branching out and taking some time to analyze some of the issues and developments that other teams in the division are facing.  Again, be sure to check out these guys’ work on the Fanball Blog Network.

Tags: Alex Rodriguez, Alfredo Aceves, Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter, Javier Vazquez, Jesus Montero, Joba Chamberlain, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Mark Teixeira, Melky Cabrera, Nick Johnson, Nick Swisher, Phil Hughes, Robinson Cano