Fantasy Ruckus: Player Evaluation

Here is one more fantasy baseball appetizer before we get to the players.  Obviously, the key to winning in any sport is having the best team.  In fantasy the best team is almost always the one that has the best collection of individual talent – not always the case in real life where chemistry, coaching and intangibles come into play.  So, that is simple enough.  The best team = the most talent.  Now all you have to do is figure out who is going to provide the most talent.  You already know that Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez and Tim Lincecum are going to be monsters.  You already know that a slew of other players are going to be dominant forces too.  Ryan Braun, Zack Greinke, Miguel Cabrera, Roy Halladay, Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, etc. are studs and it does not take any particular knowledge to recognize that.  Furthermore, those guys are all going to be off the board within the first couple of rounds.  The key, understandably, is to find the next wave of studs – easier said than done often times.  There is, however, a fairly simple way to recognize when players – predominantly of the young and talented variety – are on the verge of taking the next step in their careers.

PITCHERS

A few years ago I read an article on Fanball.com discussing a strategy that involved passing on the stud pitchers and loading up on guys who exhibit good skills – even if their numbers don’t necessarily follow suit.  I liked the idea, adopted it, implemented it with all of my teams and I have not looked back since.  The temptation to grab someone as dominant as Tim Lincecum can certainly be alluring but, even more alluring is the ability to load up on top flight hitters and then adding high upside and high skill arms in the middle rounds.  Guys such as Greinke, Josh Johnson and Justin Verlander were available after the first couple tiers of pitchers were tapped into and ended up out producing many of those that were drafted ahead of them.  The main reasoning behind this strategy is to target the pitchers who excel at the things under their control (strikeouts, walks, HR allowed, GB/FB ratio) instead of evaluating them on things that have higher elements of luck (hits, ERA, WHIP, wins).  This is not to say that the latter stats should just be ignored completely but they can be very misleading if not investigated properly.  I apologize if some of this stuff ends up reeking of common sense but, I still see people making dumb draft picks when much better talent is available – doesn’t hurt my fantasy team of course but, I’m going to discuss the “skill stats” in more detail anyway.

Strikeouts – It is not uncommon to come across people who consider strikeouts overrated and, depending on the argument, you can agree with them.  However, as far as I’m concerned, strikeouts are one of most important stats in fantasy baseball.  Quite obviously, if a pitcher is striking out a hitter, there is no chance of him reaching first base – barring the not-so-common occurrence of the batter reaching base via wild-pitch or passed ball.  I won’t go into a long list here, so you can either trust me or check for yourself, but the Top-10 of the 2009 strikeout leader board is filled with a lot of arms that we would love to have on our fantasy teams.  That is not a coincidence.  Now, despite the fact that I’m a sucker for strikeouts and that there isn’t a sexier stat to evaluate a pitcher with, you can’t allow yourself to get played.  Jorge de la Rosa has long been a guy who could rack up some punch outs but little else.  He appears to be turning the corner a bit but, Gio Gonzalez could be a guy who takes his place.  He misses a lot of bats but he is not able to complement that ability with other skills.  So, to wrap up, strikeouts are the surest way to keep someone off of the base paths because there is no chance for the batter to get lucky and find a hole or for any other stupidity to occur that can damage a pitcher’s stat line.  Just make sure you are not relying on one trick ponies.

Command (K/BB) – Walks have been frowned upon ever since we started playing kid pitch at eight years old.  There is no better way to shoot yourself in the foot than by handing out free passes.  Obviously, limiting free passes is going to promote success because there are going to be fewer men on base.  Not only is this going to keep the WHIP in check but, it can tell a lot about a pitcher’s command.  High strikeout totals are great as are low walk totals and, when the two are combined, you could be sitting on some gems.  A high strikeout-to-walk ratio is a strong indicator of a pitcher’s skills because it shows his ability consistently locate his pitches where he wants them.  If you looked at Zack Greinke’s 2008 splits – 2.88 K/BB before the break, 3.95 K/BB after the break – you may have anticipated a nice season from him.  Just because you recognize these skills does not mean you are always going to uncover the next Zack Greinke but it does go to show that it is a good place to start.  Not coincidentally, if you look at a list of the top pitchers in the game, most of them are going to have very good K/BB numbers – certainly over 2.00 but the elite are going to post rates north of 3.00 and even into the 4, 5 and 6 range.   Quick recap: high strikeout numbers are a plus, low walk totals are a plus, the two working in unison is a cause for enthusiasm.

Home Run Rate – This should be self-explanatory.  Home runs automatically put runs on the board and pitchers who can’t keep the ball in the yard have a tougher time achieving success.  Now, of course, you have some studs who are not shy about serving up the long ball.  The main thing about these guys (Johan Santana, Curt Schilling in the past, etc.) is that many of the home runs they allow are solo shots because they are not putting men on base to precede these home runs.  Ben Sheets is the guy I like to keep in mind when looking at the benefits that learning to keep the ball in the park can have on a pitcher’s overall line.  In 2003, Sheets allowed 1.59 HR/9 during the first half.  He made some important adjustments though, because after the break his HR/9 rate improved to .46.  Those adjustments did not translate to success right away but, in 2004 he surprised a lot of people with an insane season which included a 264-32 K/BB in 237 innings, 2.70 ERA and a .98 WHIP.  Based on the numbers he put up in 2003, even the most astute fantasy managers could have acquired Sheets’ services for a very low price.

Ground ball Tendencies – This kind of piggy backs on the skill of keeping the ball in the park but it is still independent enough to mention it on its own.  Being able to induce ground balls is an important skill to have because, first and foremost, grounders are not going to result in home runs.  Sure, hard shots down the line can wind up as doubles and even triples from time to time but, forcing the hitters to keep the ball on the ground when they do put it in play is generally a good thing.  Pitchers who allow more fly balls, on the other hand, are more likely to give up home runs and extra-base hits.  Now, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have some issue with this skill as one of the main evaluation components.  I certainly recognize the value in a pitcher’s ability to keep batted balls on the ground but I also don’t see a problem with a pitcher who has more fly ball tendencies – as long as those fly balls aren’t leaving the park too often.  In fact, I may even argue that fly balls are more likely to be converted into outs than ground balls.  I’m sure there is a stat out there that would prove me wrong or support me on that.   This is the skill that can be up for most debate and, because batted balls are generally going to end up as hits 30% of the time, one can argue that the importance of ground ball tendencies is lessened.  Regardless on how you feel about GB/FB numbers as a legitimate measure of a pitcher’s success, you can not deny that guys like Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez have benefited in the short careers by combining strong GB rates with improving strikeout rates and command.

Those are the four skills that I like to evaluate pitchers on because they are things that they have control over.  Of course, there will be instances where a highly skilled pitcher will have a bad year on the surface because the lucky elements did not fall in his favor.  Conversely, pitchers with poor skills will get lucky every once in a while and come across as better than they actually are.  As I mentioned before, just because someone exhibits an improved proficiency in the aforementioned skills does not mean he is destined for a breakout.  You also have to keep Ben Sheets’ case in mind though.  He had always displayed decent command but nothing in 2003, aside from the dramatic drop in HR allowed during the second half, suggested that he was about to breakout in the big way that he did in 2004.  That is the beauty of sports though – real and fantasy.  There is no level of prognostication that is able to forecast each and every occurrence for the upcoming season.  There is always going to be something or someone who surprises.

HITTERS

I have been evaluating pitchers based on those four skill stats for a few years now but, last year I decided to apply the same principle to hitters.  Now, I’m not trying to take credit for this idea because I’m sure someone realized it before I did but, at the same time it wasn’t a strategy that I came across in a magazine and decided to implement.  I just figured if pitchers have certain things that they can control, hitters should also have the ability to control those things as well.  Makes sense, right?  Let’s jump in.

Strikeouts – As we already mentioned, a strikeout virtually guarantees that you will not get on base.  There is a lot made of hitters who rack up the strikeouts.  Some people hate it but there have been many great hitters, particularly of the power hitting ilk, who struck out a ton – that’s just the nature of the game.  Hard swings are going to result in plenty of home runs and extra-base hits but they’re going to result in far more whiffs.  Obviously, though, as a hitter matures, strikeouts are something that should gradually decline until they settle in at a certain point.  Just the way high strikeout numbers are sometimes fool’s gold for a pitcher, high strikeouts for a hitter don’t necessarily call for a red flag.

Command (BB/K) – Not until recently do I recall “strike zone command” being a term used to describe a hitter’s abilities.  The term is very appropriate though because while pitchers want to throw lots of strikes, hitters ideally want to work the count until they get a pitch in a location that they can really handle – and if they don’t get that pitch, have the discipline to take their walks.  Ryan Zimmerman is one example of a guy who built on some improvements in his command of the strike zone.  Despite a down year in 2008 and despite that it was a small sample size, Zimmerman exhibited improved command of the strike zone in the second half.  He followed that up with a career year in 2009.  Now, there are certainly some other factors to consider such as the fact that he has a strong track record as a 4th overall draft pick in 2005 and a highly touted prospect.  The key, though, is recognizing any and all clues that could hint to a breakout performance.

Home Runs – This is simple.  Pitchers want to keep the ball in the field of play.  Hitters want to hit the ball where fielders can’t put a glove on it.  Home run rate is not going to apply to some players because power may not be a key aspect of their game.  This does absolutely apply to emerging power hitters though.  We already have a good idea of the type of season Pujols or A-Rod will produce but how about a young cat such as Joey Votto?  If you just look at the raw numbers, you’ll see that he hit one more bomb (25) than he did last year.  Big deal, right?  Well, look closer and you’ll discover that he improved his AB/HR from 21.9 in 2008 to 18.8 in 2009.  That is a modest improvement but, it is still one that I will be keeping at the front of my mind when it comes time to call his name on draft day.

Batted Ball Tendencies – There is more variation among hitters in terms of ideal batted ball tendencies than there is for pitchers.  First of all, everyone would love to lace line drives all over the field the majority of the time but, this isn’t a perfect world and when hitters aren’t hitting line drives, they tend to trend towards either fly balls or ground balls.  If you have someone who is projected to be a power hitter you would like to see a higher FB%.  On the contrary, a speedster like Michael Bourn is not going to achieve success living on lots of fly balls so you want to see his GB% to be higher.  It is pretty simple but, I will admit that in my own evaluations, batted ball tendencies are usually overshadowed by the other skills previously discussed.  Don’t neglect it though because there are some important trends that can be discovered in terms of a players development and whether or not someone is being affecting by extra luck of the good or bad variety.

Hopefully there is something in this post’s 2,000+ words that can help you out as you prepare for your fantasy draft.  Remember, though, the most important thing to keep in mind is that sometimes the smallest clues are the ones that have the largest impact.

Tags: Fantasy Ruckus